2007年11月14日

China's superpower dream (Part I)

MU CHUANHENG

QINGDAO, China, Nov. 9

Chinese scholar Jiang Yong has claimed that the hidden purpose behind international calls for China to take up the responsibilities of a superpower is to increase China's development risks and slow China's rise. Jiang holds that this effort to impose superpower responsibilities on China is an attempt by the United States to use and control China. The article goes on to explain the dual U.S. policy of engaging and containing China.

These points were made in a recent article titled "Challenge of a Superpower's Responsibilities" by Jiang, who is director of the Center for Economic Security Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing. The institute has a strong government background, and the article was published in the latest issue of the official magazine "Outlook Weekly."

Jiang Yong recommends that "hiding one's capacities and biding one's time" should remain China's basic and long-term foreign policy. He stresses that China should take on only those responsibilities that suit it; in other words, Beijing should selectively take up global duties without assuming the all-round responsibilities of a superpower. This suggests Jiang is critical of China's foreign policy in the past two years, and the government's proclaimed accomplishments.

On the other hand, the author also reveals an ambition to replace the "Washington Consensus" on fiscal responsibility with a "Beijing Consensus." This shows his mixed feelings -- wanting China to have the status of a superpower without accepting the corresponding responsibilities.

Soon after the article was published it was posted on major government Web sites including Xinhua.net. It appeared the media had been instructed to promote this article.

Zheng Bijian, former executive vice principal of the Central Party School and director general of the critical think tank China Reform Forum, published an article related to President Hu Jintao's visit to the United States last year. The article, titled "The Direction of the Chinese Communist Party in the 21st Century," was an attack on China's political leftists.

Zheng claimed that economic globalization was what made possible China's peaceful rise. He said China therefore had no intention of challenging the existing international order or taking a violent approach to break it. He concluded by saying that the core principle of China's domestic and foreign policy was to seek peace with foreign countries and harmony within the country, and to achieve reconciliation with Taiwan.

Discussions on the rise of a superpower have become popular not only in international society but also in China in recent years. Last year the state-run China Central Television launched a 12-episode large-scale documentary called "The Rise of the Great Powers," which drew tremendous response from viewers. Recently, CCTV launched another documentary by the same production team, called "Road of Revival." This documentary is more left-leaning than the first, and filled with "red nostalgia."

In fact, Chinese people have long dreamed of attaining superpower status, though the dream keeps transforming. Since early last century China longed to rid itself of Western influence; later it desired to surpass Japan. After the Chinese Communist Party took power it boasted that it would catch up with Britain and the United States within 15 years. Later, during the Cold War, China wanted to play a role in the power struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Then, when the Cold War ended, the United States stood as the lone superpower. Professor Niu Jun from Beijing University published an article in "Global Times" stating that China's dream to become a superpower referred to its desire to attain the same international stature and influence as the United States. Therefore, since the late 1980s, China's foreign policy strategy and goal has been to stand firmly on the international political stage and build its image as a responsible superpower.

However, China's ability to become a real superpower is restricted by the following three factors:

First, China's territory is not yet unified. The Taiwan issue has long been a major concern for the Chinese Communist Party. If this issue is handled unwisely it could lead to foreign intervention. Besides, there are many other hidden troubles in China's border areas.

Secondly, as the domestic economy develops serious social problems have appeared, owing to the lack of protections provided by a democratic system. These include corruption, conflicts between the government and citizens and a huge gap between rich and poor. Pressure from the huge numbers of poor people could lead to social breakdown at any time.

Thirdly, international society and surrounding countries have always been cautious and suspicious of Red China. Although China today enjoys rapid growth in its economy, foreign trade, foreign investment and official foreign reserves, its per capita income ranks 110th in the world. It is equal to only 4 percent of U.S. per capita income, 5 percent of Japan's and 10 percent of South Korea's. According to international standards, which put the poverty line at less than US$1 income per day, there are 135 million Chinese people living under the poverty line. This accounts for 10.4 percent of the country's population and 18 percent of the world's 750 million impoverished people.

These three factors reveal the limits of China's ability to attain superpower status. Nevertheless, in recent years China's economy has developed phenomenally and its international influence has increased. Hence its desire to become a superpower has also expanded. It is therefore natural for international society to expect China to take on greater superpower responsibilities.

(To be continued)

--

(Mu Chuanheng is a freelance writer and a former lawyer. He has published a number of books on trade negotiations and democratic politics. He is included in the book "World Celebrities [China Vol. 2]" published in Hong Kong for his new theory of culture. This article is edited and translated from the Chinese by UPI Asia Online; the original can be found at www.ncn.org. ©Copyright Mu Chuanheng.)

http://www.upiasiaonline.com/Politics/2007/11/09/commentary_chinas_superpower_dream_part_i/9498/

没有评论: